Who's Winning the Social Security Fight?
The lefty blogosphere is abuzz (yes, I'll be using that word periodically, until someone suggests a better one) over a recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll indicating that overhauling Social Security could be an uphill battle for the President. Both Atrios and Daily Kos are salivating at the thought of a major victory.
Of course, this is completely inconsistent with the evil-but-insanely-brilliant characterization they've repeatedly assigned to Rove and the stratagems of the administration. If they're so incredibly diabolical and clever, why would they walk right into an issue that looks so uninviting?
There are only two possibilities, if we rule out that they've momentarily lost political competency: either they know something we don't, and thus Social Security reform is more viable than it currently appears, or -- brace yourself -- they're not really hoping to reform it now at all.
After all, the poll in question shows that, while only 38% of those polled believe we need to reform Social Security within the next two years, a whopping 75% believe we must make changes within the next ten.
Let's not rule out the possibility that the Bush administration is playing for the long haul here. Democrats are thirsty for some sort of political victory, and the Republicans might be perfectly willing to let them have it if it means they've gotten a chance to shape the debate. People now believe there's a problem with the system; it's not out of the question that Bush aimed for the sun (privatization) with the intent of hitting the moon (establishing the need for reform down the line).
Another possible factor is that Bush has made a habit of attacking Democratic strongholds, of which Social Security is the biggest. During and before the campaign, if memory serves, he visited the fairly reliably blue Pennsylvania more than any other state. He went on the offensive and forced Democrats to defend their base, leaving them scant time to pick off stragglers from his own.
And, of course, it could be (D) all of the above.
UPDATE: turns out Glenn Reynolds was saying some of the same sorts of things a month ago.
» March 2nd, 2005
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