Auditing Rasmussen's Accuracy
Primary polls, we are told, are notoriously unwieldy. They deal with a small number of voters, some of which find themselves reacting to news and shifting their vote on a regular basis.
So, generally, people tend to put faith in the poll that tells them what they want to hear. For Romney supporters over the last week, that'd be Rasmussen, which gave Romney a 6-point lead in Florida (until this morning).
But is it really tied? And did Romney actually have such a huge lead before the Crist endorsement? Rasmussen has had a mixed track record on the first four major contests. It's predicted Romney's totals in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina quite well (within 2, 1, and 3 points, respectively). But in all three states, it greatly underestimated those competing against him. It had Romney within 1 in IA and NH, and tied with McCain in SC.
In reality, it had underestimated Huckabee by 8 points in Iowa, McCain by 5 in New Hampshire, and McCain again by a whopping 9 points in South Carolina. All three numbers are above or near the margin of victory in each instance.
Their biggest misfire was in the one major contest Romney has won; Michigan. They had him eeking out a 26-25 win over McCain, when in reality he went on to win 39-30. It should be noted, however, that their last poll in Michigan appears to have been taken almost a week before the primary.
So, what does this tells us? It tells us that in three of the four major contests so far, Rasmussen has predicted Romney's share of the vote extremely well, but vastly underestimated those who went on to defeat him. It's also had all four primaries either tied, or within one point. Actual margins of victory: 9, 5, 9, 3.
Now, they have Florida listed as a tie, as well. If the recent past is any indicator, it may be anything but.
» January 28th, 2008
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