Hidden in Plain Sight
Jonathan Chait has an interesting entry up on TNR's The Plank about electability:
Jonathan Chait - January 21st, 2008 To Democrats, it's perfectly obvious that the strongest Republican nominee is John McCain. He polls very highly, everybody knows Democrats and Independents who like him, and so on. But Republicans are constantly debating this. You see Republicans spinning horror scenarios of a McCain nomination leading to a splintering base or depressed turnout. To Democrats it's bewildering that they even debate this. Lots of Republicans feel the same way about the Clinton/Obama electability debate.
Methinks this is one of those times where being too close to a situation blinds us to some obvious facts. The primary voters in both parties are failing to see what is hidden in plain sight: Obama has the best chance to win on the Democratic side, and McCain has the best chance to win on the Republican side.
As Chait points out, these facts are perfectly evident to each party's counterpart, but not to those in the party who actually make the choice.
You need look no further than last night's Democratic debate, where John Edwards was asked a question about McCain and the success of the surge. Hillary and Obama both discussed how they would take McCain on. They know. They know McCain is the most electable Republican. They know he's the only one with an unblemished credibility in regards to the Iraq war. Yet many Republican voters are so caught up in their pet issues that they can't see that.
There are, of course, a few semi-persuasive rationalizations. Some say that there will be a lack of enthusiasm from Republican voters if a more moderate candidate like McCain is elected. But they ignore that a) he also puts the votes of a massive number of Independents and even some Democrats into play, and b) turnout and enthusiasm will not be a problem if Hillary is the nominee.
All other things being equal, you should vote your conscience. But all other things aren't equal. The reality is that you're not simply voting for John McCain, or Mitt Romney, or Mike Huckabee for President. You're voting for a candidate AND their probability of becoming the next President in one fell swoop.
In other words, are John McCain's positions so antithema to immigration hawks and the like that they'd sacrifice, say, a 20% drop in the likelihood of victory in November to vote for Romney? Apparently.
» January 22nd, 2008
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