Hugh Hewitt Didn't Major in Mathematics
How do I know? Because in one of his many post-Florida rationalizations, he breaks down some of the possible outcomes on Super Tuesday, adds up the likely distribution of delegates in a worst-case scenario for Romney, and concludes the following:
Hugh Hewitt - January 30th, 2008 Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:
McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.
It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.
Start looking hard at the numbers and put yourself in the discussions with Team Romney. It isn't pretty, but it is far, far from over.
Let me see if I have this straight. It's "far, far from over" because, if things don't go well for Romney on Super Tuesday (and it doesn't appear they will), he'll have around 327 delegates, and there'll be more than 900 delegates left (989, I believe, actually). But, as Hewitt points out, he needs 1,191 to win the nomination.
Now, I didn't major in mathematics either, but it seems to me that, under Hewitt's scenario, Romney would have to win over 87% of all the delegates available after February 5th, which is untenable even for the frontrunner...which he will not be. 87%. A reincarnated Abraham Lincoln couldn't win 87% of the delegates.
It'd be impossible under any standard, but even moreso given the fact that, of the 21 states voting after Super Tuesday, only two of them are winner-take-all. That means that McCain picks up delegates even when he loses.
No one can make Hugh Hewitt like John McCain (with one possible exception), but someone should at least hand him a calculator.
» January 31st, 2008
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