The Wild Card: Thompson in South Carolina
As I wrote yesterday, most of the possible scenarios of South Carolina's primary on Saturday will bring some much-needed clarity to the race.
However, there's one plausible outcome that could throw the Republican race into even further turmoil:
A Fred Thompson victory.
Despite his slow start, Thompson still appeals to almost every section of the Republican party. Republican voters have not been disappointed in his message or policy stances, but with his lack of enthusiasm. He alleviated this with a strong showing in last Friday's debate, and has been closing electoral gaps since.
But even though a Thompson win would muddle an already murky race for the nomination, it also has the chance to crystalize things. Any win will produce a degree of momentum for any candidate, naturally, but a Thompson win has the potential to become a tsunami in the way it could not for most other candidates. A win from Romney or Huckabee has a "well, we'll see" air about it. A Thompson win will have many conservatives crying "at last!" It is reasonable to assume that voters would coalesce behind Thompson more than they would behind any other candidate who might win the state.
Thompson appeals to every section of the Republican party. He's the kind of candidate people look for an excuse to get behind. If he gives them that with a win in South Carolina, voters could flock to him at an alarming rate.
» January 17th, 2008
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