Thompson Drops Out
It's official; Fred Thompsons's out.
Let's get right down to the ramifications: who is this good for, and why? Conventional wisdom would say that it's good for whomever he endorses. Early rumblings are that Thompson may not endorse anyone, but if he does, it'll almost certainly be McCain, who he backed against a good deal of the Republican establishment in 2000.
However, there's an unusual disconnect between what Thompson wants, and what his supporters want. Though McCain may be his candidate of choice now that he's out of the race, it's not clear that his followers will follow his endorsement.
Though data on the matter is hard to come by, there's a growing consensus that, even with a Thompson endorsement, the majority of his supporters will flock to Huckabee or Romney, regardless of where he throws his personal support.
This creates an interesting dyanmic. If they gravitate to Romney in significant numbers, it hurts McCain in Florida, where Romney is looking surprisingly competitive. If, on the other hand, they prefer Huckabee, he'll place stronger there, but probably won't win anyway. McCain, then, is presumably hoping for an endorsement, and hoping that the Fredheads who don't come his way end up in Huckabee's camp, rather than Romney's.
Or, most of them could just sit the primary out now that their candidate of choice is gone, rendering all this half-baked analysis moot. We won't have any idea until the first post-Fred Florida poll is released.
UPDATE: things could crazier still, with some indications that Huckabee, though not necessarily on the verge of packing it in, is losing steam. Does this increase the likelihood that Fredheads will generally prefer Romney?
» January 22nd, 2008
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