Will South Carolina Bring Clarity?
Everyone had assumed -- with good reason -- that the first several primaries would "thin the field" a good deal on the Republican side. But the first three contested primaries (sorry, Wyoming) have produced three very different winners, leaving the race as wide open as it was a few months ago. Huckabee and McCain both had a chance to solidify their "frontrunner" status by simply winning a second state, but both fell short. And yesterday's winner in Michigan, Romney, is polling poorly in South Carolina.
Things should be different this time around, however. No matter who wins in South Carolina, under all plausible scenarios the race should become a little clearer
That's because no matter what happens, either Huckabee or Thompson will probably find themselves out of options. They're competing for some of the same voters, and both need a strong showing. Thompson has stated outright that he needs to win. Huckabee hasn't conceded as much, but it's hard to imagine him being a factor if he fares poorly. This is supposed to be his strong suit, and if he can't compete in South Carolina, just how does he believe he can win?
So, at the very least, one candidate will likely have dropped from viability. Beyond that, things are understandably muddled. A Romney victory is extremely unlikely, but if he somehow did squeak by the other candidates, it would ensure that he, McCain and Giuliani fight all the way through Super Tuesday. If Huckabee wins, he stays in the first-tier and earns the right to keep going. If McCain wins, he'll find himself in a very commanding position.
One way or another, the race should begin (and I can't emphasize that word enough) to crystalize Saturday night.
» January 16th, 2008
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