The Smoke-Filled Auditorium
It's impossible to discuss the idea of a brokered convention without making mention of the "smoke-filled" rooms in which such matters were decided in the past. Of course, the country's come a long way since then, to the point at which an entire auditorium of people might be making decisions, instead. Needless to say, that'd be a lot of smoke.
That, however, is a genuine possibility, as Obama has pulled ahead in delegates, and appears to have that oh-so-unquantifiable "momentum" on his side. But will the superdelegates go along, or will they overrule the people? CNN's got an article up this morning about this possibility:
CNN - February 14th, 2008 Party rules call for the votes of superdelegates -- 800 or so party officers, elected officials and activists -- to tip the balance. The party instituted the system to avoid the turmoil that a deadlocked race would create at a convention.
But even some superdelegates are questioning the system, as the party heads toward the conclusion of a race in which they might determine the outcome.
"It's not the most democratic way of doing things," said Maine superdelegate Sam Spencer.
No kidding.
For those of you who can't math, the 800 superdelegates account for nearly 20% of the total delegates in the race; a massive number in any election year, let alone one in which the race is so close. Conventional wisdom (which isn't always as wise as its name would have us believe) has been that the majority of the superdelegates were favorable towards Hillary. But Obama's recent gains have called that into question; they are, after all, only people. And surely some of them must realize that Obama gives them a much better chance to defeat McCain than Hillary does.
Of course, this is one of the best of all possible outcomes for McCain supporters. The prospect of facing Hillary has many dreamining of a double-digit victory in November, something which would be all the more likely if Hillary wins the nomination despite losing to Obama in the way of, you know, actual votes. It's hard to imagine her as a more polarizing figure than she already is, but I reckon that would do the trick.
» February 14th, 2008
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