The Math Doesn't Work For Anyone
The line we've been hearing from the Obama camp over and over is that "the math doesn't work" for Senator Clinton. They point out that she'd have to win an overwhelming number of delegates -- 97%, by some accounts -- to achieve the magic number of 2,025.
This is true, but it ignores a salient fact: the math doesn't really work for Senator Obama, either. He'd need around 77% of the remaining delegates to formally win the nomination. If Clinton continues to campaign vigorously, it's hard to imagine him getting there, either.
So, dismissing either candidate on account of "the math" is simply obtuse. The race is close enough, late enough that that superdelegates are certainly going to decide the nomination. When the Obama campaign talks about "the math," and say it favors them, they're assuming both that a) the superdelegates will not overrule the voters, and b) the voters will continue to vote for Obama.
It's probably true that the superdelegates aren't going to give Clinton the nod if Obama goes into the convention leading in terms of both delegates, states, and total votes. But what if he only leads in the first two? What if Clinton performs fairly well the rest of the way, and takes a slight edge in the popular vote?
This isn't likely, of course, but with scattered reports of a possible revote in Florida and Michigan, it's not beyond the pale.
Regardless, it's important to understand that when the Obama campaign talks about "the math," they're not really referring to the primaries and caucuses...they're assuming that the superdelegates will ultimately back whoever has a lead in delegates -- even if that lead is tiny.
» March 5th, 2008
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