Elections '12
April 15th, 2010...
Can Newt "Rebrand" Republicans?
Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight has an article up called "Newt Gingrich: Dominated Strategy?" wherein he speculates that Gingrich is outflanked as a potential 2012 candidate in terms of both personal appeal and perceived electability:
Nate Silver - April 12th, 2010 Basically, I think Gingrich is fairly close to being a dominated strategy. If Republicans just want to pick the candidate they like the best personally -- electability be damned -- they'll go with Sarah Palin. If they want someobdy who they think can win, they'll hold their nose and vote for Romney. And Huckabee, not Gingrich, seems to be their second choice in both those departments. Nor do I think that Gingrich can credibly be re-branded as a fresh face if that's the direction in which Republicans want to go; voters (both Republicans and the broader electorate) remember him pretty well, even though his peak of political activity came around 15 years ago. Finally, he's easily the least electorally accomplished of the four brand name candidates, having never been elected to an office higher than the U.S. House, and from an easy district at that.
Silver's perspective is solid reasonable, but I'll quibble with a few things.
First, I don't think Romney is necessarily seen as especially "electable," but whether he is or not, the shadow of RomneyCare hangs over his entire political life. It's horrendous luck for him as a candidate, but its similarities to ObamaCare would seem to doom him right out of the gate.
Second, real life is a tad more complex than all that. People don't necessarily vote based on one primary factor. It's entirely possible that many Republicans will settle on a mix of things. They may settle on someone who both embodies their populist anger and their idea of electability, and Newt fits quite nicely between Palin and Romney in this regard. It doesn't hurt that he's associated with the major Republican resurgence in 1994, either. People will still be angry when the 2012 campaign kicks off, but they'll probably have cooled down a bit from the level they're at now. That's probably good news for Newt, should he decide to run.
Third, regarding the re-branding Silver talks about. Call it a de-branding, instead: fair or not (I say not, for the most part), the idea that the Republican party is the party of anti-intellectualism is starting to gain some footing. Between the verbal gaffes of both Dubya and Sarah, and some fairly bigoted notions of "rednecks" and the South in general, it's not difficult to spin the idea that Republicans are ignorant and proud of it.
Gingrich, however, is the antithesis of this. Nobody can seriously challenge his intelligence or general competency. He has what Republicans have said they want out of a leader: intelligence without elitism. Newt can help counteract the growing perception that Republicans will always nominate the folksy over the capable.
Now, to invalidate this entire entry: I don't think he'll run. But I hope he will, and I think he has a genuine chance to win if he does.
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